New Delhi/Chennai: With Congress and BJP having no political base in Tamil Nadu, AIADMK having lost its only vote puller J. Jayalalitha and DMK losing its stalwart leader Karunanidhi, and the regional parties having only isolated presence, the clear picture in the state will only emerge on May 23, the day of counting of votes.

Election is being fought on the plank of development, corruption-free govt and retrieving past glory of the state.

As of now, no one can judge vote bank, percentage for any party after two leaders, Jayalalitha and Karunanidhi passed away. If we take the example of the last election which took place in RK Nagar, DMK lost its deposit and AIADMK (ruling party) lost against TTV in a bye-election with a major vote difference. This is going to be new election for all new leaders.

Under the circumstances in the state, it seems that the electorate have been left with no other choice due to TINA (there is no alternative) or TINC (there is no choice) factor.

And, the reasons being “real” AIADMK (MGR/JJ) cadres are not showing too much involvement with party activities due to lack of current leadership. Just because they are the ruling party, they are doing some party level activities as a formality. They always boldly say, Amma is God of Tamil Nadu, but now they are not even interested to say EPS / OPS as their leaders and for the heck of it, sticking with them just because they’re ruling party.

Sources said that even DMK cadres are allegedly not impressed with Stalin’s leadership qualities. They are comparing him with Karunanidhi. Most of the old supporters are not showing much interest in party activities. Only party administrators are showing their capabilities to get seats, and garner votes.

PMK Anbumani had gained some support from neutral and educated voters. All these impressions have been spoiled now due to alliance with AIADMK and DMDK.

Sources further added that BJP has lost its credibility much more comparing to the last election. The main agenda of AIADMK and BJP was corruption which is no more an issue now as “they filed many cases against ministers”. Allegations are that they influenced all independent institutions like judiciary, CBI, Election Commission, Income Tax and Governors to attack opposition parties.

Cadres of only some parties like NMK, SDPI and AMMK are working hard to taste big wins comparing to all other parties. Ninety percent of AIADMK “core” cadres are working for AMMK, including some MPs, MLAs and ministers.

Tracing the elections path

It was a bipolar contest between AIADMK and DMK in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It was a clean sweep for AIADMK winning 37 out of 39 seats and NDA - BJP 1 seat and PMK 1 seat. DMK was decimated, mainly because of scams, former CM Jayalalitha’s image and pro-people’s policies.

However, in 2019, there are new entrants such as AMMK of TTV Dhinakaran, Kamal Hassan’s MNM and Rajinikanth’s party. So it isn’t a bipolar contest this time. It is going to be really tough for DMK to get more than 15 seats and United AIADMK to repeat its tally. These actors’ parties are going to eat into their votes considering their fans’ support.

DMK lost the RK Nagar bye-poll and its deposit. It clearly states that people are fed up with the party in Chennai. So it may lose urban votes. However, it is likely to revive in other parts of the state. It would gain from AIADMK’s political instability.

However, in all likelihood, UPA (DMK, INC, IUML) wouldn’t cross 15 seats as INC is totally wiped off in the state and because of Karti Chidambaram’s case.

A United AIADMK has no tall leader like Jayalalitha. It may lose about 10-15 seats as TTV is going to eat into its votes and also people may opt for other parties as there is political turmoil in the state and also confusion. Moreover, people are seemingly not happy with the party. The party may lose the support of farmers because of Cauvery verdict.