If the lockdown is lifted on May 31, India will see a rise in the number of Covid-19 cases by mid-July
Bengaluru: After several extensions to the lockdown, Prime Minister Narendra Modi may finally put an end to it on May 31.
Of course, the move will be treated as Hobson’s choice, but how will it impact the spread of the dreaded virus and what will its impact on the country be?
Economic Times quoted professor and head of life course Epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India Giridhara R Babu as saying, "If the lockdown is lifted on May 30, then we will have peak around mid-July because if you take three incubations period, which is one-and-half months, that will be enough for you to know how the disease spreads when nothing is controlled, he told . He hastened to add: But nothing-is-controlled never happens in India now because even if you let people to be free today they don't do things that they used to do because of phobia. So, we will have probably a lower surge compared to what we would have had if nothing was done from the beginning.”
Prof. Babu, who is trained in Epidemiology (MPH and PhD) from University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) said, "We have to prevent transmission going from urban to rural."
Stressing on the need to control the spread, Babu added that we must focus on overcrowding in urban cities and not let our guard down.
“Physical distancing and reduced movement, these are very critical as we move forward. If we are able to do that to the extent of 60 to 70 per cent, I think we will maintain the same lower trajectory as it has been so far.”
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