If Pakistan have to enter the semi-finals of the ICC World Cup 2019, they have to defeat Bangladesh by a margin of more than 300 runs so that they overtake New Zealand on net rate to take the fourth spot in the points table
Chester-le-Street (Durham): England’s win not only put them in the semi-finals of the ICC World Cup 2019 but has virtually put paid to Pakistan’s chances of qualifying for the last-four stage.
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Thanks to Jonny Bairstow’s second consecutive hundred in the 10-tournament, England thrashed the Kiwis by 119 runs on Wednesday (July 3). Despite New Zealand’s big loss, they are set to progress to the semi-finals because of a healthy net run rate.
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Pakistan will face Bangladesh in their last league game on Friday (July 5). But the Sarfaraz Ahmed-led side will find it impossible to win and enter the knockout phase.
If Pakistan have to enter the semi-finals, they have to defeat Bangladesh by a margin of more than 300 runs so that they overtake New Zealand on net rate to take the fourth spot in the points table. However, if Bangladesh bat first, Pakistan’s fate will be sealed before a ball is bowled as they have to complete the run chase in zero balls to overtake New Zealand, which is impossible.
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If Pakistan bat first, they need to score at least 308 runs to surpass New Zealand on net run rate. However, to stay there, they need to dismiss Bangladesh for zero runs. If Pakistan score 350, then the victory margin should be 312 (bowl out Bangladesh for 38 or less) and if they manage to score 400, then the winning margin should be 316 (bowl out for 84) or score 450 and win by 321 runs (bowl out for 129).
It is worth mentioning that in the history of ODI cricket, no team has managed to win by a margin of over 300 runs, the highest-ever being 290 by New Zealand against Ireland in 2008. Pakistan's biggest margin of victory in ODIs is 255 against Ireland in 2016.
New Zealand are currently at fourth position with 11 points from nine matches. Their net run rate is +0.175. Pakistan’s net run rate is -0.792 and they are on nine points from eight games. The 1992 champions are placed fifth.
Pakistan fans who were in good spirits after eerily similar path between 1992 and 2019 World Cup campaigns of the team, are now disappointed that the ‘men in green’ are virtually out of the 10-team competition. They were left ruing the heavy defeats in the initial stages of the tournament, the game against West Indies in particular when they were bowled out for a paltry 105.
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